Conflict Costs Too Much

The Northern Conflict costs Uganda 256 million Dollars this year, shows a study carried out by international NGOs

By Mai Rasmussen, Information Officer, MS Uganda

29. november 2002

People suffer from conflict. Or they even die. This off course is sad, unacceptable, and a terrible loss to their loved ones. Also, it is a loss to the society as a whole.

In dry figures the conflict in the North will cost 256 million Dollar in 2002, shows a study commissioned by Civil Society Organisations for Peace in Northern Uganda (CSOPNU). The study was contracted by Care International and published in September.

Explosion in 2002 Costs

This year’s figure is considerably higher than the annual average of 100 million Dollars – due to the increased activity from both LRA and UNDP.

In percentage, the average cost of the conflict amounts to 3 percent of the GDP, whereas this year’s spending will reach as high as 10 % of GDP, the study shows.

The total cost is composed by different expenditures and turnovers lost due to the conflict. The greater ones are:

• Direct military expenditure
• Loss of income from crops, because the land cannot be cultivated
• Loss of income from tourism: Visitors do not come, hotels are not build by foreign investors
• Increased medical costs

Development Suffers

Long-term development is one of the great sufferers in time of conflict. One example drawn from the study is that pupils in Acholiland get 2 years less of Primary Education than in Uganda as a whole. This is followed by lower production. The value of output lost due to this loss of education has been estimated at 10 % for the region.

Also, donor funding is lost due to the conflict. Either, because the international organisations are restricted or prevented for operating in conflict areas. Or they simply draw out, because no impact is possible. The study assumes that additional resources beyond those already allocated in Acholiland would have been 10 % under peaceful circumstances.

Peace is Profitable

During the more than 16 years of war Uganda has lost or spent over 1.33 billion Dollars, according to the study.

"In economic terms this is a sunken cost, water over the dam, worth thinking about only as a guide to future action", the reports recommends.

It encourages Government to drawn on the Teso experience. Not only in terms of peace and better lives the Teso conflict resolution was successful. Also in money terms it has been an advantage for the region and the nation.

"Discussions with businessmen and women as part of this consultancy reveal that a tremendous injection of investment will take place (in Acholiland) within the first few years after the end of the war, followed by a long period of steady but lower growth thereafter", the report says.

The report referred to is ‘The Net Economic Cost of the Conflict in the Acholiland Sub-region of Uganda’, commissioned by Civil Society Organisations for Peace in Northern Uganda (CSOPNU), prepared by Dr. Jeff Dorsey and Mr. Steven Opeitum, September 2002. Contact CARE International for further information: korus@careug.org