Political Update

Peace talks in Jeopardy?

Never since its unification into a single country 237 years ago, has Nepal undergone so much change so quickly. Still, for some things are not moving fast enough

By Binay Dhital

08. August 2006

King Gyanendra has been stripped of all royal powers and privileges. The army's direct to the royal palace has been severed, at least officially. It will henceforth have to take its orders from parliament. Nepal, boasted of being the only Hindu kingdom in the world, has been declared a secular state. The country is now headed for a constituent assembly. Announced through a parliamentary proclamation, these sweeping changes have caught many people off guard.

Since these changes have been announced without proper homework for their implementation and with the objective of proving the worth of the revived parliament and preventing the Maoists from taking credit of such crucial changes, it remains to be seen, however, how all this works out in practice. Some see all this as a capitulation to the Maoists; others view it as an attempt to take away from the Maoists any rationale for continuing with their insurgency.

Division over monarchy

In general there is a mood in favor of converting Nepal into a republic and doing away with the monarchy. However, specifically regarding the issue concerning monarchy at least three parties in the seven party alliance (SPA) - Nepali Congress (NC), Nepal Peasant's and Workers' Party and Nepal Sadbhavana Party - are in favor of keeping the king with only ceremonial role. CPN-UML was also of a similar view, but later, to compete with the Maoists, it changed and stood against any form of monarchy. Top Maoist leaders are on record that they will accept whatever the outcome of the proposed constituent assembly elections, even if it goes in favor of reviving an autocratic monarchy.

At the same time they and their cadres never fail to mention that what they really want is a democratic republic in Nepal. Maoist doublespeak over the issue may be occasioned either by a need to play to the gallery in their own rank and file or by a long-term strategy of using a democratic republic as a stepping stone to an eventual people's republic and  communist utopia.

End of honeymoon fuels internal wrangling

Since November last year, when the Maoists and SPA signed an agreement to work together against the king's rule, several rounds of talks have taken place between the two sides. For some time SPA seemed to be dealing with the Maoists as the eighth party and the Maoists also seemed happy.  But with time, the relation between the two seems to be as it was before i.e. SPA, who is in government, is acting like a government, while the Maoists' activities and expressions seem to be like those of rebels - not those of the "eighth party". 

There is another underlying problem. Maoists sometimes seem closer to NC than CPN-UML. Both being communist parties, the real competition are between them. Maoists want to weaken the CPN-UML by using the NC. NC is enjoying it as it thinks that the new power equation won't make much difference; its voters will remain - there is less chance of many NC voters joining the Maoist. CPM-UML is scared of the Maoists because a Maoist party without arms would be a communist party much better and progressive than the existing UML and there is a real risk of progressive youth leaders and cadres of UML joining the Maoist party. 

Should the situation continue, a derailment of the hard won peace process cannot be ruled out. 

Maoists' arms: a major stumbling block

The way ahead is full of challenges and given the way main political actors are handling things, the challenges are looking even tougher. The crucial task at hand is the writing of a new constitution through a constituent assembly. A constituent assembly has to be elected, and the modalities for this exercise properly worked out. Since the constituent assembly election is an exercise which is totally new to the country, people have to be educated and prepared, prior to the election. But, before the election takes place, the issue of the Maoists' arms has to be settled. Otherwise the elections will not be deemed free and fair.

An interim constitution is being worked out and preparations are on for bringing the Maoists into an interim government. But the SPA now in power has categorically ruled out inclusion of the Maoists in any interim administration unless the arms issue is tackled first. The international community including the UN is also of the same view. The leader of a high level UN mission, which concluded its mission in Nepal, Staffan Mistura had stressed the need for the separation of Maoists from their arms. Earlier, Maoists had flatly rejected the UN mission's idea of keeping their arms lucked up somewhere by using two padlocks, one from Maoists and another from the UN.

Maoists argue that they will accept this proposal if the Nepal Army's arms also are locked up like this. But the SPA as well as international community doesn't buy this Maoist argument. 

The American government has warned that if the Maoists are included in any interim government without first giving up arms, the USA will cut all links with the Nepalese government. Likewise Japan and India.

CPN-Maoist chairman Prachanda has said that he cannot even think of giving up arms before the conclusion of the constituent assembly election. His proposal is that both the Maoist and state army be kept (simply) under UN observation.

Analysts say that Maoists are not willing to separate themselves from their arms because it's the arms which give them the bargaining power. So, the SPA is on one hand facing strong international pressure on not allowing the Maoists into any interim administration until they keep their arms, while on the other they cannot trust the Maoists. This stalemate on arms management has stalled other important processes.

Interim constitution in limbo

With the parties in the SPA and the Maoists providing the interim constitution draft committee with divergent suggestions regarding crucial issues like monarchy, arms management, parliament, fate of Maoists and Nepal army, judiciary etc, the draft committee is all the more baffled. 

NC has proposed that in the interim constitution the king be given a ceremonial space, none other parties have proposed this. Maoists have proposed immediate dissolution of parliament and formation of an alternative body including 101 representatives each from among Maoists, civil society and SPA. It has also demanded a provision for establishing "people's courts" (Kangaroo courts) in the villages. SPA has proposed the continuation of the parliament until the first session of the newly elected constituent assembly. These are just a few examples of how divergent their proposals are and how difficult it is for the draft committee to do its work. It seems as if the Maoists are keen on retaining their status as a parallel state.

Another sad thing is none of the Maoists and SPA has yet any vision and concrete idea about where to lead the country. They are blank on the process and modalities of CA; they have no idea of how to ensure the representation--on what basis, how to educate voters etc. 

People still hopeful

Still, people are happy that there are no more killings and bandas. Despite their hard bargaining, doublespeak and possibility of raising arms again, the Maoists seem to a large extent willing to join the mainstream. They have said that even if they fail to negotiate peace, they will not return to the jungle, rather they will launch a peaceful political struggle. However, the brinkmanship both on the part of Maoists and SPA is very ominous. None of the parties will get another, better, opportunity to sort out things and make peace. Hopefully this sense will prevail.