Conflict has been buried alive

Although politicians have signed a political agreement, disputes over land and resources on the local level have not been dealt with

Mutahi Ngunyi

Scenarios for the political future of Kenya were lined out during the Annual Meeting by Political Analyst Mutahi Ngunyi and Peace Consultant Dekha Ibrahim Abdi.

Both talked about conflicts on two levels after the December 07 elections: The national, political level and the local grassroots level.

Mutahi Ngunyi distinguished between the two naming them ‘the revolt from above’ and ‘the revolt from below’.

The revolt from above is about political power sharing whereas the revolt from below is about redistribution of resources such as land and government investments, mainly on the local level.

The revolt from below was – in the words of Mutahi Ngunyi - ‘buried alive’ with the signing of the peace agreement, meaning it was never settled through negotiation. The issues addressed by the ‘revolt from below’ were frozen at independence, but was then unfrozen after the December 07 elections and may start simmering again.

The ‘revolt from above’ is – at least temporarily - solved through the Kofi Annan mediated peace deal between the two rivaling political parties.

The 'revolt from below' that materialized in violence has not been settled yet.

However that does not settle the dispute for good, Mutahi Ngunyi stressed.

“The political agreement did not come about because Kibaki and Raila love each other. It was forced. And what we will see is Kibaki trying to get his way by influencing the implementation of the agreement. Currently there is an ongoing disagreement over distribution of cabinet seats. What will happen if this disagreement persists? One possibility is that PNU will pull out of the coalition. If that happens, all ODM ministers except for the Prime Minister and the ODM appointed Deputy Prime Minister will be fired. This outcome can not be ruled out,” Mutahi Ngunyi estimated.

Risk of gridlock over forming cabinet
Peace Consultant Dekha Ibrahim agreed on the two scenarios: One is that the rivaling political parties will come together, the other is that the discussions over forming the cabinet will gridlock, and the two parties will slide back to a position of ‘us’ and ‘them’.

Dekha Ibrahim sees clear tendencies of the latter occurring as she speaks:

“Last week everyone was bonding because the politicians did, because Martha Karua bonded with everybody. But now that the political situation seems to gridlock, everybody seems to be gridlocked. It may not only be a political gridlock, but a social gridlock on the grassroots level too.”

Such a gridlock may lead to renewed violence in the country triggered by ongoing conflicts such as the ones in Laikipia or the Mt. Elgon region, she adds.

Despite the signs of gridlock Dekha Ibrahim does think that the politicians will eventually agree on a template of power sharing.

“The 2007 elections have been the most expensive ones financially for politicians. There so much at stake for them, that they might eventually agree and get together,” she predicts.